Imagine an existential crisis. A major international conference.The EU president isn't attending. The US president isn't.China's president isn't.India's president isn't.France's president isn't.Germany's chancellor isn't.Brazil's president isn't.Russia's president isn't.South Africa's president isn't.Canada's PM isn't.Japan's PM isn't.Australia's PM isn't....I've been an Earth system scientist for 30 years now. We used to say we have to turn the corner by 2020.

Never has effective climate policy been more urgent than today. Climate breakdown is evolving.What's needed is not more "climate policy as usual", but a late massive step-up to protect the future.Tomorrow, the UN's 29th climate conference starts. Never have I been less convinced than of this year's meeting. Entrenched fossil fuel interests and strategies rule.Of course, yes - I'll take any hard-won progress achieved. But the gulf between words and deeds seen in the data is widening.

At the same time, I am already fed up with what's happening on the previously pro-Harris talk shows and news media, in the US as well as here in Germany. Suddenly talk is that the Democrats made enormous mistakes by "not listening to the people" and "being afraid to alienate progressive groups".So responsible politics is now to listen more to:* unadmitted nationalist racism?* dismissal of climate breakdown?* shrugs on unregulated big tech?* being ok with proto-fascist politics????

After Brexit, this is the 2nd major election won by the systematic deployment of disinformation. Disinformation benefitting whom? The digital tech interests who do not want to have their grip on key services regulated. The fossil fuel interests that put money and profit above any responsibility. Self-interested big business that is looking to undermine regulation on the environment and social welfare.It's mafia-like collusion: oligarchy, not democracy.

Why is the gvmt staying in office despite no longer having a parliamentary majority? Because the chancellor cannot be forced to resign. S/he can be replaced only by electing someone else to the office, or if s/he her/himself calls a vote of confidence and loses it, leading to elections. Why is that? Because in 's first, the Weimar Republic, the chancellor could be toppled without having a majority for replacing him. That caused great instability: radical forces toppled gvmts to create chaos.

Today's the birthday of Marie Skłodowska Curie (1867-1934), pioneering physicist, double nobel laureate, passionate human, Polish - and, for some reason, a hero of my teenage years, as I dreamt of one day being a scientist myself. Because she was more than just a technician or bloodless theorist, but had values and passion. Of course back then we had mainly the soft-washed accounts. More recent, honest accounts speak also of some quite steely edginess. Still relevant in subtle ways, 90 years on.

An opinion in The Guardian, "Fear triumphs over hope": "This time there is no excuse. America knew that he was a convicted criminal, serial liar and racist demagogue who four years ago attempted to overthrow the government. It voted for him anyway ... It saw Kamala Harris’s competence and expertise, her decency and grace, her potential to be the first female president ... To elect Trump once may be regarded as a misfortune; to elect him twice looks like craziness."https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/06/how-trump-won-us-election-president

It's not worth mentioning how bad this is. Who cares about a responsible, inclusive future. Or climate science. Or decency. Or rationality.My heart goes out to the progressive, caring, honest Americans out there - half of the nation. You are not few and we will fight authoritarian take-over together.

It's a deeply moving thing when a large and powerful nation like the US goes to polls to choose a leader. Even when it's a hugely flawed process, driven by entrenched power structures and money. It doesn't happen in China or Russia.This time, however, it's not just about who will lead the US. It's about whether for the first time in nearly 250 years, democracy will fall into authoritarian hands right in its western core. That has never happened before, despite the ups & downs of history.1/4

"...but now he has the impression that his past views about society were, after all, too one-sided. In reality, it is probably like Earth: a cold crust on the outside, a core of burning lava inside."Zhang Jie 张洁 (1937-2022) in her 1981 post-Maoist novel "Heavy Wings" (or "Leaden Wings") which I am currently reading. A novel full of structural tension, struggle, failure, aspiration.

Congratulations to the newly appointed & reappointed members of @wbgu, the government's Advisory Council on Global Change, and sister council to @umweltrat. The former advises mainly on the planetary dimensions of (national) environmental policy-making, the latter on the national & European dimensions.It is notable that the gvmt maintains such scientific councils & their offices and makes them fully independent in what they address, conclude and advise.But it has to lead to more action.

Keep an eye on this page: the new UNEP Gap Report will be released later today. It describes the huge gap between where we need to be for climate stabilisation and where we actually are (not close).Last year's report was entitled "Broken Record". Because climate extremes broke records and the message we climate scientists send out year after year also sounds like a broken record: time is running out - and we have to finally start being honest to ourselves.https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2024

The absolute low point of my train journey from Berlin to Copenhagen: passport controls throughout the train. This is just the sort of division that undermines the free, common Europe we built. I do not approve.