The actual outcome of this election with •the whole US population• as the denominator:
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The actual outcome of this election with •the whole US population• as the denominator:
22% voted for Harris
23% voted for Trump
<1% voted for other
26% eligible but did not vote*
28% not eligible to vote* (whether by choice or by voter suppression)
Numbers might shift a tiny bit as last votes are counted, but this is close to the final tally.
Just sit with that for one quality minute. Think about what stories people are telling about this election. Then think about what stories are true.
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Paul Cantrellreplied to Paul Cantrell last edited by [email protected]
(Please lmk if I screwed up the math. Sources on the exact US population and number of eligible voters are from quick web searches and different sources differ slightly; also I haven't had lunch yet.)
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A relevant article:
https://www.wonkette.com/p/donald-trumps-margin-size-is-almost -
@inthehands The election numbers have been explained to us in so many ways. None of the explanations include manipulation of the vote totals. I guess Russia and China decided to sit this one out.
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@inthehands
I'm curious whether the unable to vote population count includes children -
Daniël Franke :panheart:replied to Paul Cantrell last edited by
@inthehands That "not eligible to vote" segment, does that include children? Because that's an insane number if not.
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@lonepundit
There is no credible evidence I'm aware of that Russia et al have ever manipulated vote totals, and there's •ample• reason — both in process and data — to think they haven't.There is, on the other hand, overwhelming evidence that Russia at least has manipulated •voters• with disinformation and fake engament designed to foster infighting, exacerbate divisions, and de-motivate people. That, I think, very much shows in the numbers I posted.
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@RnDanger
Yes, I tried to make it so -
Paul Cantrellreplied to Daniël Franke :panheart: last edited by
@ainmosni
It's supposed to include children, yes. Whole US population. -
@inthehands Trump won the popular vote and the electoral vote. America is getting what it asked for.
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Re @davids7’s question: my numbers are back-of-napkin calculations using press reports of current vote tally + sloppy web searching for US population and voting-eligible population. Please take my numbers with the appropriate gain of salt.
The broad “each group is about about 1/4” conclusion should be approximately correct, but don't stare too hard at exact percentages until somebody does this calculation a bit more carefully.
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@MyOpinion
No, all of the US is getting what 1/4 of the US asked for. -
Daniël Franke :panheart:replied to Paul Cantrell last edited by
@inthehands OK, just making sure, as I do know that many places in the US ban ex-convicts from voting.
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The broader point of my OP here is that there are a lot of analyses circulating that use more meticulously gathered data about •the wrong questions• — or at least about flawed questions that ignore over half the population of the country.
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Paul Cantrellreplied to Daniël Franke :panheart: last edited by
@ainmosni
Indeed it does. They're in that 28% too.Two things we need to be careful about are:
- “eligible but did not vote” includes both apathy and suppression
- “not eligible to vote” also includes suppression -
@RnDanger @inthehands I’m pretty sure that number has to include children
The other percentages indicate the full population of the US, including kids
I believe it’s around 2-3% of adult population who is ineligible to vote due to felony convictions and I can’t think of any other reason for ineligibility
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Paul Cantrellreplied to Peter Butler last edited by [email protected]
@peterbutler @RnDanger I pulled total US population, which would include children, and presumably also non-citizens.
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@inthehands
I reckon it would be more useful to base the figures on US citizens over 18. -
@inthehands Looks like a narrow majority of the whole population comprises people who were eligible to vote and yet decided that voting to stop Trump wasn’t their bag. Hard to put a positive spin on that.
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@janxdevil
Keep in mind that the 26% and the 28% both include people whose vote was suppressed: wanted to vote, but couldn't. So probably not quite a majority are as you describe.Still damned depressing.
