The actual outcome of this election with •the whole US population• as the denominator:
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A relevant article:
https://www.wonkette.com/p/donald-trumps-margin-size-is-almost -
@inthehands The election numbers have been explained to us in so many ways. None of the explanations include manipulation of the vote totals. I guess Russia and China decided to sit this one out.
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@inthehands
I'm curious whether the unable to vote population count includes children -
Daniël Franke :panheart:replied to Paul Cantrell last edited by
@inthehands That "not eligible to vote" segment, does that include children? Because that's an insane number if not.
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@lonepundit
There is no credible evidence I'm aware of that Russia et al have ever manipulated vote totals, and there's •ample• reason — both in process and data — to think they haven't.There is, on the other hand, overwhelming evidence that Russia at least has manipulated •voters• with disinformation and fake engament designed to foster infighting, exacerbate divisions, and de-motivate people. That, I think, very much shows in the numbers I posted.
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@RnDanger
Yes, I tried to make it so -
Paul Cantrellreplied to Daniël Franke :panheart: last edited by
@ainmosni
It's supposed to include children, yes. Whole US population. -
@inthehands Trump won the popular vote and the electoral vote. America is getting what it asked for.
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Re @davids7’s question: my numbers are back-of-napkin calculations using press reports of current vote tally + sloppy web searching for US population and voting-eligible population. Please take my numbers with the appropriate gain of salt.
The broad “each group is about about 1/4” conclusion should be approximately correct, but don't stare too hard at exact percentages until somebody does this calculation a bit more carefully.
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@MyOpinion
No, all of the US is getting what 1/4 of the US asked for. -
Daniël Franke :panheart:replied to Paul Cantrell last edited by
@inthehands OK, just making sure, as I do know that many places in the US ban ex-convicts from voting.
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The broader point of my OP here is that there are a lot of analyses circulating that use more meticulously gathered data about •the wrong questions• — or at least about flawed questions that ignore over half the population of the country.
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Paul Cantrellreplied to Daniël Franke :panheart: last edited by
@ainmosni
Indeed it does. They're in that 28% too.Two things we need to be careful about are:
- “eligible but did not vote” includes both apathy and suppression
- “not eligible to vote” also includes suppression -
@RnDanger @inthehands I’m pretty sure that number has to include children
The other percentages indicate the full population of the US, including kids
I believe it’s around 2-3% of adult population who is ineligible to vote due to felony convictions and I can’t think of any other reason for ineligibility
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Paul Cantrellreplied to Peter Butler last edited by [email protected]
@peterbutler @RnDanger I pulled total US population, which would include children, and presumably also non-citizens.
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@inthehands
I reckon it would be more useful to base the figures on US citizens over 18. -
@inthehands Looks like a narrow majority of the whole population comprises people who were eligible to vote and yet decided that voting to stop Trump wasn’t their bag. Hard to put a positive spin on that.
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@janxdevil
Keep in mind that the 26% and the 28% both include people whose vote was suppressed: wanted to vote, but couldn't. So probably not quite a majority are as you describe.Still damned depressing.
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@jwi @inthehands I reckon the usa would be more useful if those people were eligible to vote.
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Like…just for starters, if you're walking down the street thinking, “Did HALF of these people really vote for this miserable fascist shitstain?,” the answer to that question is, “No, about a quarter did.”
…Which is still pretty damn depressing, but…well, I find that that thought does give me a substantially different picture of the country I live in.
