Why are there so many rumblings about Liberals trying to push Trudeau out?

Nick Pilon

@hamishb @chris And neither the Mulroney nor the Chrétien/Martin gov'ts were brought down by *boredom*.

Mulroney's strategy for maintaining his coalition wound up heightening regional tensions, which splintered his party's base.

Chrétien let control of the party machinery get away from him, and Martin pulled off a coup... But was unprepared for the national stage, and marred by scandals caused by his own fondness for backroom knife fights.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @hamishb sounds like perhaps it’s not always the media? But regardless, we are here now and it is clear Trudeau is done. I sincerely hope, for the good of Canada, that he gets out of the way of renewal.

Júbilo MX

@chris I just wish red and orange joined against blue... maybe without Trudeau

Nick Pilon

@chris @hamishb Your whole thesis was "governments fall because voters get bored of them after about 10y".

That's simply not true; modern UK gov'ts last 50% longer than that, while Canadian gov'ts fall for all kinds of reasons. There's almost no evidence of Canadian gov'ts *ever* falling because voters are bored.

The idea that Canadians are "bored" of Trudeau is 100% a media invention, and left-wing recycling the idea that it's a modern, universal effect just shows how effective it's been.

Ed Wiebe

@mpjgregoire @chris Maybe they need to work harder to persuade their constituents they are worthy of re-election, rather than just ride on the coattails of the (awful) party system.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@jubiloMX I'd be up for that.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @hamishb ok. Even if I'm wrong about Canadians getting "bored” of governments after 10+yrs (none of the evidence you have presented refutes that). Trudeau is very obviously not going to win an election. So I do hope he figures that out and leaves.

Nick Pilon

@chris @hamishb name one Canadian government that was unambiguously brought down by voter boredom. I’d really love to see any evidence supporting that theory at all. Because I’m not sure there’s even one in the post-WW2 era. I’ll even accept provincial governments.

Fred

@chris
The Federal Liberals are looking like they're going to be in a similar position to the Liberal Party of Ontario. Under Wynne's leadership they fell to 7 seats and a new leader didn't help them. In the election after they chose a new leader they still only won 8 seats, 1 more than had before.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @hamishb Frankly, I don't really feel like delving that deeply right now… it's missing my point in the original post, which is that polling is very clearly showing, and the panicking of Liberal MPs is making it obviously true, that the electorate is looking for a change. I hope Trudeau relents.

Dan Neuman

@chris @npilon @hamishb The part I don't understand is *why* are they looking for change. Are they just falling for Poilievre sloganeering? Is it rents? Healthcare privatization?

Nick Pilon

@chris @hamishb @dan613 And I'm saying that amplifying a media narrative hands power to those that constructed it, particularly if it's presented as objective observation rather than constructed narrative.

The Canadian left is never going to be able to win if we keep playing roles that are written for us because they look immediately convenient.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@dan613 @npilon @hamishb as I said before, I truly believe that as a *whole* the electorate gets bored, for lack of a better term. I think it is just what happens. Enough people get fed up or disaffected, or whatever, with whatever individual policy they might be attached to. Rarely is it "one thing” (like the GST with Mulroney)... it's an accumulation.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @hamishb @dan613 I think blaming a ‘media narrative' is lazy. I've talked to enough people, on all sides of the spectrum, to come to the conclusion that a change is wanted, and thus needed. Lashing out at that and blaming the media is counter production when there could be some introspection and figuring out what needs to be done to reverse the trajectory.

Dan Neuman

@chris @npilon @hamishb I'm thinking of Pierre Trudeau, and the Ontario Liberal Party. (Note the important use of the Oxford Comma)

Nick Pilon

@chris @hamishb @dan613 but where does that desire for change come from? Where do people get the information that leads to it? If the root of that desire is people absorbing a constructed narrative through exposure to mass media and regurgitating that narrative, then trying to address it through policy or political changes without challenging the narrative signal will be futile.

Do you really believe the people you've spoken to are immune to propaganda?

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @hamishb @dan613
#1: I think we are well past the point where "mass media" is driving opinion. The majority of voters are now Millenials and younger. Most of them don't have cable TV, don't listen to the radio, let alone the cable news channels. Most people don't pay attention to politics like you and me. They are too busy or whatever, and some don't even care.

#2: The desire for change comes naturally. It comes from people's experience in the world. It comes from what people hear from their friends and families and what they see in their own community. If they start to feel like things haven't improved in awhile, then they are more likely to want to change government.

#3: Are people immune to propaganda? Absolutely not, otherwise propaganda wouldn't exist. I believe Facebook and Twitter are and have had a huge impact on warping a subset of people's minds to take conspiracy theories and other nonsense to heart. But I don't think that that necessarily impacts people's want for change, it just polarizes people, which is a separate problem. The underlying feeling (#2) prevails.

#4: There will always be a focal point of the change. With Harper it wasn't Harper himself so much as it was his government and Party’s disdain for basic humanity. For Chretien and Martin, it wasn't the person, it was the corrupt nature of the party. For Trudeau, unfortunately, because he has always been a "Brand" in and of himself, and he encouraged and embraced that, now it is about him. Much like it was about for his father. I think that's why people, not just the media, but people in general, have turned on *him* rather than the Liberal Party.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@dan613 @npilon @hamishb Yes, I think Justin is now feeling the negative side of his name recognition. Just as it was about Pierre when he left... now it is about Justin as he leaves. It's unfortunate, it's not his (Justin’s or Pierre’s) fault. It just is. His family is so engrained in the psyche, for better or worse, of Canada that it was always going to be about "him" when he left.