Why are there so many rumblings about Liberals trying to push Trudeau out?

Nick Pilon

@chris @dan613 we had an NDP majority government right? Voting intention polls clearly showed Mulcair forming one in 2015.

Nick Pilon

@chris your causality is backwards; there’s so many rumblings about discontent among “blue Liberal” backbenchers because the US media succeeded in kneecapping Biden and Canadian news media pundits want their own trophy.

In the event of a bad election, these MPs are all losing their seats. They won’t be speaking 4th, because they won’t even be in the building. But they can land sweet analyst or commentator gigs by kissing up to the right conservative money men.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@Scienceisnotopinions unfortunately no democratic leader stays in power forever. The best ones know when to step aside and allow the electorate to try something new. It’s pretty clear that’s what needs to happen now to have any chance of avoiding a Poillievre gov.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @dan613 perhaps one day the folks in Ontario will think outside the Whig/Tory box and it’ll actually happen.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon I don’t think it has much of anything to do with US politics aside from the use of Facebook/Twitter as a disinformation platform by the CPC. People get tired and bored of governments and leaders. That’s just what happens and Trudeau needs to walk away to give the best chance for us to avoid disaster and continue the good he’s done.

Nick Pilon

@chris I absolutely think it has to do with *media dynamics*. Cochrane is following, nearly to the letter, the exact script that was used in the US to force Biden out - find a couple of elected reps on the fringe of the party's coalition, loudly platform them, then move towards the center and try to force more reps to align with their fringe. Make it clear you won't let them talk about anything else until they do what you want.

Nick Pilon

@chris I don't think "people get bored of gov'ts" is supported by Canadian history. I think it's something our news media has taken to repeating, because they like Pierre Poilievre and want him to win.

But do you see the news media saying Ontario is getting bored of Doug Ford or Saskatchewan is tired of Scott Moe - both elected a mere 3 years after Trudeau? No. Why?

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon i think if you look at the history of Canadian (and pretty much any western democracy) elections/governments you will most certainly see that outside wartime, electorates tire of leaders and/or parties after about 10 years. To your point, yes, there is some media push but to say it is entirely that I think is naïve, and it doesn't matter now anyway. The path is clear, just as it was for Biden. And speaking of Biden... thank god, because Kamala is killing it now. The Liberals need to try the same thing. As for Scott Moe, he's facing the first real challenge to his government he's ever had. Let's hope the NDP pull it out.

Party leaders Scott Moe, Carla Beck stick to core platform issues in provincial election debate | CBC News

NDP Leader Carla Beck and Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe faced off in a debate in advance of the Oct. 28 provincial election. Check out what you missed.

CBC (www.cbc.ca)

Hamish Buchanan

True. We had Bill Davis as Premier of Ontario for about a century and boredom was not considered a problem with him.

@npilon @chris

M. Grégoire

@chris More to the point, many Liberal MPs see themselves well along the path to becoming former MPs, and they think only some radical change might save them now.

#CanPol #cdnpoli

Nick Pilon

@hamishb @chris And neither the Mulroney nor the Chrétien/Martin gov'ts were brought down by *boredom*.

Mulroney's strategy for maintaining his coalition wound up heightening regional tensions, which splintered his party's base.

Chrétien let control of the party machinery get away from him, and Martin pulled off a coup... But was unprepared for the national stage, and marred by scandals caused by his own fondness for backroom knife fights.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @hamishb sounds like perhaps it’s not always the media? But regardless, we are here now and it is clear Trudeau is done. I sincerely hope, for the good of Canada, that he gets out of the way of renewal.

Júbilo MX

@chris I just wish red and orange joined against blue... maybe without Trudeau

Nick Pilon

@chris @hamishb Your whole thesis was "governments fall because voters get bored of them after about 10y".

That's simply not true; modern UK gov'ts last 50% longer than that, while Canadian gov'ts fall for all kinds of reasons. There's almost no evidence of Canadian gov'ts *ever* falling because voters are bored.

The idea that Canadians are "bored" of Trudeau is 100% a media invention, and left-wing recycling the idea that it's a modern, universal effect just shows how effective it's been.

Ed Wiebe

@mpjgregoire @chris Maybe they need to work harder to persuade their constituents they are worthy of re-election, rather than just ride on the coattails of the (awful) party system.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@jubiloMX I'd be up for that.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @hamishb ok. Even if I'm wrong about Canadians getting "bored” of governments after 10+yrs (none of the evidence you have presented refutes that). Trudeau is very obviously not going to win an election. So I do hope he figures that out and leaves.

Nick Pilon

@chris @hamishb name one Canadian government that was unambiguously brought down by voter boredom. I’d really love to see any evidence supporting that theory at all. Because I’m not sure there’s even one in the post-WW2 era. I’ll even accept provincial governments.

Fred

@chris
The Federal Liberals are looking like they're going to be in a similar position to the Liberal Party of Ontario. Under Wynne's leadership they fell to 7 seats and a new leader didn't help them. In the election after they chose a new leader they still only won 8 seats, 1 more than had before.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @hamishb Frankly, I don't really feel like delving that deeply right now… it's missing my point in the original post, which is that polling is very clearly showing, and the panicking of Liberal MPs is making it obviously true, that the electorate is looking for a change. I hope Trudeau relents.