Arab Americans only, please: how are you planning to vote for President in the upcoming election?

Evan Prodromou

I'm still not sure. I vote in California, where Harris leads something like 57% to 35% in the most recent polls. Unless something goes wildly amiss, a vote for a third party candidate who supports ending the war in Gaza and Lebanon would be a safe vote that would not throw the election to Trump.

Evan Prodromou

However, I don't know if it sends any kind of message whatsoever. I feel dishonest casting a vote for a person who is not my preference.

Evan Prodromou

I feel like the movement to pressure the Democratic candidate to be more explicit about ending the war has been the only structural pressure available in the last year.

The US has vetoed resolutions to come to a ceasefire in the UN Security Council. The US and Israel have considered the decisions of the UN General Assembly non-binding, and the requirements of the Internation Court of Justice as moot since Israel is supposedly already in compliance. Neither country is a member of the ICC.

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

@evan Someone recently compared voting to stepping on a train. No train will ever bring you directly to your doorstep but you and many others take the train that brings you closest to your respective home. That mental image makes sense to me.

Evan Prodromou

Israelis aren't having an election and might re-elect the Netanyahu government, with or without its Kahanist partners, anyway.

Weyoun 6

@evan I have seen no evidence that voting for third parties sends any sort of message. Have you? Who would you vote for?

Evan Prodromou

So, the narrow margin in battleground states like Michigan, where Arab Americans are a non-neglible percentage of the population, has been one of the few points of direct pressure available.

Evan Prodromou

I should be clear; I am not in the least bit interested in your advice unless you are an Arab American and note that in your reply.

𝑪𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒚 𝑺𝒏𝒊𝒑𝒆𝒔 🍂

@evan The recent This American Life podcast about that specific scenario is really good. https://www.thisamericanlife.org/843/a-little-bit-of-power

Jonathan T

@jwildeboer @evan The problem with that metaphor is that it isn't as persuasive as some people seem to think.

I've been getting 'on the train' the vast majority of my voting life. And I've never been further from my destination than I am today. Every time I've taken the least-worst train, it's stopped a longer distance away from where I wanted to be than when I first started. (1/2)

Laxystem (Masto/Glitch)

@evan as an Israeli leftist, am relieved by these results.

Evan Prodromou

This election cycle has been a game of chicken between the campaign and the Arab American community and the wider peace movement.

Neither one wants Trump to win; both have been betting that the other side will swerve.

Evan Prodromou

It is probably too late for the Harris-Walz campaign to swerve. Early voting already started. A last-minute announcement of a different policy, unless it were truly radical, would probably not be enough to convince anyone.

Evan Prodromou

So, the question becomes, should the Arab American and peace faction swerve?

On one side, there's the realpolitik of voting. If you say you're not going to vote for a candidate unless they change a policy, and they don't change it, you are weakening future negotiating positions if you vote for them anyway. Candidates will know that you don't stick with your threats.

Evan Prodromou

On the other hand, a second Trump presidency would be disastrous for everyone, including the Arab American community and all people in the Middle East.

Evan Prodromou

I think there is a small but non-zero chance that the killing of Yahya Sinwar might open a window for a ceasefire before election day.

I don't think it's wise for the Harris campaign to count on that.

The Netanyahu government has been back channelling with the Trump campaign for months, and right wing Israeli politicians have been saying publicly that a Democratic victory is bad for Israel.

I doubt that Netanyahu will bend over backwards to save her campaign.

jeanh

@evan unfortunately the bargain you correctly describe here is more than a catch 22; it’s a fait accompli. the other candidate is openly threatening to jail leftists (“the enemy within”) if elected and displays Israeli flags at his rallies.

Evan Prodromou

In terms of leadership in the Arab American community, the Uncommitted Movement has refused to endorse Harris. Rashida Tlaib has said that defeating Trump is important, but still has not endorsed Harris.

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

@JonnyT @evan Every metaphor always invites the opposite But hoping for an ideal candidate/party that ticks all the marks is equally impossible. What has changed radically in the past 10-15 years (yes, I blame centralised „social“ networks) is that we have been trained to NOT discuss nuances, searching for compromise, we are stuck on binary positions with zero wiggle room. Especially in two party systems.

Evan Prodromou

I think the rough strategy of the Harris campaign is to pick up whichever votes they can from Arab Americans, and then make up the rest of the gap in other ways.