Who, a decade ago, thought the web would be a such a true threat to Adobe that it both went all-in on a $45+BN acquisition attempt *and* would launch a full-fledged version of Photoshop (*real* Photoshop) on the web?

Alex Russell

This is what a model advantage does; it creates space for new competitors to introduce intrinsic advantages of a different platform in stable categories. But only when certain conditions are met.

What are those conditions?

Alex Russell

So if the web is meeting all these requirements on desktop – even running away with the lead – why am I saying "the web is losing"?

Because 3/4 of devices sold today that can run capable browsers are phones, and the web is getting *destroyed* on mobile. Utterly routed.

This is what I started warning about in 2019 [1], and more recently on my blog [2]. The terrifying data I had access to 5 years ago is now visible from space.

[1]: https://vimeo.com/364402896
[2]: https://infrequently.org/2024/08/the-way-out/

Alex Russell

First and foremost, there has to be *a cost-competitive channel*. That is, users have to be able to acquire software on this new platform without a lot of extra work. The web drops channel costs to nearly zero, assuming...

*80/20 capability.* Essential use-cases in the domain have to be (reliably) possible for the vast majority (90+%) of the TAM. Some nice-to-haves might not be there, but the model advantage makes up for it. Lastly...

*It has to feel good.* I.e., performance can't suck.

Thomas

@slightlyoff May I suggest a "The Web Is On Track to Die" blog post that distills this to a mass audience? Non-dev tech-nerd discourse feels 5+ years behind where you are. No one seems to realize the mobile %JTBD problem and its link to engine choice/capability gap. Heck, I still hear "iOS WebKit is necessary against Chromium monoculture" all the time.

Alex Russell

@tmnc I'm working on a version of this thread as blog post now