Will Trudeau announce his departure before the October 28 deadline some members of his causus has given him?

The Alchemist

@npilon @chris it seems a number of those MP's come from Atlantic Canada. It might be easy to dismiss them as regressive (no doubt some are), but they aren't exaggerating when they say people are done with Trudeau here. I'm talking about voters who despised Harper, who were happy to vote for Trudeau in 2015 now are done with him. I say this because I don't want to see a con/PP gov't, but if they don't find a different leader, that's what we will likely get.

Nick Pilon

@alchemistsstudio @chris I'm not sure how you're able to tell this; no-one's naming names except for the one guy from PEI, who's got some shall we say interesting donors.

I'm in Halifax and I'm not seeing the same levels of totally done as you are; in fact, everyone seems to be assuming that *everyone else* is totally done, which makes for some WILD conversations.

Nick Pilon

@alchemistsstudio @chris Ah, double-checking reporting this morning, it looks like Wayne Long from NB has also publicly confirmed himself to be one of the 80... Wait, no 40... Uh maybe 25? MPs that have signed.

Long has a history of aggressively supporting oil pipelines and directly attacked Gaza ceasefire protestors, though he also voted for the NDP pharma bill in Feb 21, so who knows what's up with him. Looking at NB election results, though, he's gotta be feeling funny RN.

The Alchemist

@npilon @chris an MP from PEI, NB, and Newfoundland are on record. They've indicated there are more in the Atlantic caucus.
I hope I'm wrong and I'm glad it's different in Halifax, but if we don't want a con majority more than just urban seats will be needed.
I honestly wish the Liberals an NDP would create an election pact to ensure the Cons don't win, similar to the one used in France to prevent a right wing victory.

The Alchemist

@npilon @chris The number reported is 24. I've only read 20 - 30 signed. Some papers imply there are 50 to 60 who want him out because some are scared to sign, but of course this may well just be conjecture.
And yes, I'm not sure why Wayne Long was even allowed to run for the Liberals. The look on Trudeau's face in the picture they use of Long and Trudeau together is priceless

Nick Pilon

@alchemistsstudio @chris I've seen 24 in a few reports, but many of these same sources reported "40 and growing" had *signed* a week and a half ago. So I think we're in a place where no-one involved has an incentive to tell the truth, which is *not great*.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @alchemistsstudio the diminishing of the numbers is frankly hilarious… like looking at the hole in the titanic and insisting water trickling in won’t turn into a torrent. Carry on chaps!

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@alchemistsstudio @npilon the problem with your theory is, like France, the Canadian Liberal party is a neo-Liberal, centre-right coalition, like Macron’s party and the population knows it. Macron is deeply unpopular. Macron’s party was not the one that made the coalition. It was the equivalent of the NDP and other leftists that kept the right wing out and saved France from neo-fascist forces. The only reason Macron was able to stay as leader is because the Presidency and Parliament are separate in their system. Not so in Canada. If we want a left coalition to save us from Poillievre’s fascist fools, then it is going to Jagmeet Singh and whatever rump of Liberals there are left… and I do mean, Left.

Nick Pilon

@chris @alchemistsstudio you're just totally wrong here. *Macron* did not make the "popular front" second-round deal, no. *Macron's party* did, over his (vocal and public) objections.

But this wasn't out of the goodness of their pure and noble Left-wing hearts. Once the far-right's seats had been limited in the Assembly, Macron's party gleefully went along with his maneuvers to freeze the left coalition out of government.

Which is why the French gov't is now a Macronist/conservative alliance.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @alchemistsstudio I don't know how you got the impression that Macron, or his Party, was part of the popular front, or maybe that's not what you're saying. They most certainly are not. Any suggestion otherwise is a fundamental misunderstanding of the mood and results of the French elections in July.

“The left-wing alliance [Popular Front] secured 188 seats in the National Assembly, according to official results. French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance is in second place with 161 seats.”

The Popular Front and Macron's party did not make any deal to avoid running candidates in certain ridings. They ran against both Macron's Party and the far right.

But you're right... regardless, afterward, Macron, who I might add is a good friend of our own Prime Minister, turned around, raised his Parisian Middle Finger to the Leftist Alliance that saved France from outright fascism, buddied up with the right wing fascists anyway as he gave the Premiership to “a compromise candidate, chosen to be acceptable to parties from the centre, the right and the far right. “ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Barnier)

I would suggest not using Macron as an example… unless it is to show a leader who is also deeply unpopular with the population.

France election results 2024: Who won across the country

The left-wing alliance is on course to win the most seats in a dramatic parliamentary election.

POLITICO (www.politico.eu)

Nick Pilon

@chris @alchemistsstudio Okay, so why did the the left-wing alliance secure 188 seats in the National Assembly? Walk me through the steps. Because the original post you replied to was not talking about the Popular Front (the formal alliance of four left-wing parties that Macron was trying to fracture), but the "election pact", the second-round deal, which was sometimes referred to informally as a "popular front".

Who was involved in the second-round deal?

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @alchemistsstudio Because they presented an alternative to both.

Step 1 through 5 were:

”The New Popular Front (French: Nouveau Front populaire [nuvo fʁɔ̃ pɔpylɛːʁ], NFP) is a broad left-wing electoral alliance in France.[b] It was launched on 10 June 2024 to contest the 2024 French legislative election following the gains of far-right parties in the 2024 European Parliament election in France. The Front stood in opposition to both Ensemble, the presidential camp of Emmanuel Macron, as well as the far-right National Rally.”

Step 6-10 was a mobilization of organized labour... which Macron has consistently and deeply alienated througout his *and his party’s* tenure, which should sound familiar….

New Popular Front - Wikipedia

(en.wikipedia.org)

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @alchemistsstudio In the second round *some* candidates from Macron's party were withdrawn if they had finished third, but there was no real agreement to do so, and the NPF actually removed more of their own candidates (130 vs 80) who had finished third or worse in order to ensure the far right lost.

Bottom line, had the NPF, a *left wing alliance* not been created, none of that would have been possible. Macron benefited only because his own party was not completely wiped from the board, and because he himself was not up for re-election. He will not be President for another term, that much is clear. Again, I would not use Macron or his political back stabbing as an example to follow for the Liberal Party of Canada.

Nick Pilon

@chris @alchemistsstudio The "left wing alliance" you're talking up is just how left-wing politics is organized in France; it's not at all remarkable, though it did manage to pull itself back from the brink of dissolving due to infighting.

You're also ignoring that Attal, the outgoing Macronist Prime Minister, was organizing ENS withdrawls in the second round, over Macron's own personal objections. And even when candidates did not withdraw, he encouraged voters to coalesce behind the leader.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @alchemistsstudio there is plenty that is very different in France than here in Canada. The first and foremost is our system of Parliament. Getting back to the original point I was responding to before going down the rabbit hole, which was a wish that the Liberals and NDP would create a pact to block the CPC. I would love for that to happen... but the problem, again, is Trudeau. He is just as unpopular to folks who would vote NDP or Green as he is with the CPC and the right.

In order for any cooperation between the NDP, Liberals, Bloc and Green to be even possible, he has to go. That much should be obvious.

Nick Pilon

@chris @alchemistsstudio Eh I think there's an alternative option, and it's to go full pro wrestling. Trudeau goes into the next election in full heel mode, and intentionally jobs for Singh. Similar vote consolidation benefits, *much* less risk of rejection / non-participation from anti-Liberal negatively polarized NDP voters.

Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

@npilon @alchemistsstudio I think that might have been an option 6 months ago. We're too far down the road. The drum is beating. He'll be gone before the New Year. If he doesn't go, it'll be a CPC majority.