Boom !
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Mastodon Migrationreplied to Mastodon Migration last edited by
Getting comments here about how it's still close and we need to keep working. Of course we do, with everything we've got.
But let's not be afraid of pulling out to a nice lead.
Let's have a short discussion about virtuous cycles and vicious cycles...
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Mastodon Migrationreplied to Mastodon Migration last edited by [email protected]
According to Simon Rosenberg, who really understands these things (Hopium Chronicles https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/kamala-won-polling-is-good-trump 8:37)
"A virtuous cycle is where we're doing well, more people come our way, Joy generates joy and more people and we sort of kick in this virtuous cycle where more money comes in, we reach more voters, our campaign gets stronger and bigger and we just keep getting bigger and bigger and stronger and stronger as we get closer to election day."
more...
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@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
Yes, and my understanding is that this still doesn't include data from after the debate.
vruz (@[email protected])
Attached: 1 image These polls are significant. Ipsos is one of the most reliable pollsters that exist, and they happen to be in agreement with the substantial data collected by Morning Consult (a less good pollster, but 3000+ samples makes the data hard to ignore). The recent polling also agrees with SoCal's, which is paid for by Republican sponsors. And all this data is from before the debate, and before some endorsements. Better than good. #Dems #VoteBlue #Harris2024 #HarrisWalz2024 #election2024 #HarrisWalz
Mastodon π (mstdn.social)
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@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
It's actually going to look better than this in a few days.
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Mastodon Migrationreplied to Mastodon Migration last edited by [email protected]
It's to early to know for sure, but the Harris Campaign may be entering a virtuous cycle. This would be a very good thing.
On the other hand...
"They [Trump] may last night [debate] have begun to enter a vicious cycle where there is doubt about the candidate, where people hold back their money, where they don't volunteer and their thing starts to erode, right? I don't know that yet, but it's very possible..."
more...
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Mastodon Migrationreplied to Mastodon Migration last edited by
Bottom line. We want to be careful not to get over confidant, but there is nothing wrong with running up the score. If managed correctly a strong lead invigorates the troops and demoralized the enemy!
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Mark Darbyshirereplied to Mastodon Migration last edited by
Here's hoping this virtuous cycle helps the Democrats take both chambers of Congress!
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@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
Polling aggregate models will lag a little longer still.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model -
Just FYI, Rosenberg says to just ignore Nate Silver...
"My advice to you is I would ignore him completely. And I don't think... he's not in the forecasting business anymore. He's in some other business. He has a book that he's trying to sell. So he's trying to make a lot of noise. I would just stick to my work, to Tom Banya, to FiveThirtyEight, which is I'm using as sort of an objective source."
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/kamala-won-polling-is-good-trump 42:45
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@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
I don't because it's useful to highlight when he's wrong.
Other people can do whatever they want, I think blinders are less useful.
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@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
I think people who tell you to ignore different stats methods when things don't go their way aren't very good interpreting stats and they only use stats as propaganda material.
I use stats to try to understand what's actually going on.
Other people can do whatever they want, they can use blinders and lie to themselves all they want.
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It's all good. Just letting you know Rosenberg's take on Silver.
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@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
By the way, whoever says "Don't trust him, trust me and my work instead" is very transparently incompetent in my view and automatically untrustworthy.
But that's just me and I don't tell people what to do.
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Lots of questions about Silver and his relationship with Peter Thiel.
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@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
Silver's model is being used by his former mates of FiveThirtyEight under the umbrella of ABC News.
I think it's not very smart -I actually think it's extremely stupid- for a statistician to ignore polls because somebody said he may be pals with Thiel.
I am aware of the fact that polls are sometimes used to lie. It's a core feature of pollsters.
But knowing how much they're lying and their biases and interpreting that is extremely useful.
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Not disagreeing with you, but here is some background on the Thiel/Silver connection.
https://www.alternet.org/nate-silver-stuart-stevens-polymarket/
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Jim E-H πΊπ¦replied to Mastodon Migration last edited by
@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin We especially need to run up the score this time, because it makes it less likely their intended cheating will succeed.
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@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
The data is the data. Ignoring Silver is just as bad as ignoring YouGov, or Ipsos, or any other serious analyst. You learn a lot from the biases.
I even take a look at the Real Clear Politics average, even when they include Rasmussen and Fox data (really terrible polls, more wrong than right most of the time), because that helps you estimate how skewed are somebody's numbers, knowing that RCP always give 1 or 2 points more to the Republican candidate.
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Agreed.