Every polling model is off.
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Every polling model is off. Pollsters are used to dealing with reproductive freedom as a sidebar issue -- and they are mostly male. They are underestimating female rage. #roevwade #Roevember2024 #HarrisWalz2024 #MYODB #uspol #uspolitics #KamalaHarris @KamalaHarrisWin
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@juliehuz @KamalaHarrisWin last time they underestimated trump by a few points (people don't like being honest to a pollster that they'll vote for em)
it's possible the polling data could be reworked to emphasize likely/registered voters who are women, either:
- assuming newly registered voters lean more towards Kamala than predicted?
- assuming swing voters lean more towards Kamala?not sure what else could be expected.
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@risottobias @KamalaHarrisWin Those spikes are female registrants only. After 2016 and 2020 pollsters increased the weighting of non-college educated white men. No similar increase for women was made after Dobbs decision on abortion. I am ok with it -- we;ve learned not to trust the polling for our modeling and strategy. Work for every vote. Every day. for the next 65 days! leave it all on the field.
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@juliehuz @KamalaHarrisWin true. I think both adjustments are needed:
adjust "non-college educated white men" as even more into trump's camp (as pessimistic)
adjust any women category to lean slightly more towards Kamala - except less in any region with voter suppression, where the turnout would be more difficult to achieve (highlight that diff)
that shows us the work needed to power past voter suppression and get a blue wave working