"Big batteries at home could catch fire!

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

"Big batteries at home could catch fire! They are a risk!"

No: "the findings indicate that the probability of an home storage systems (HSS) fire is very low (0.0049 %) and is 50 times lower than for a general house fire."

"But solar panels catch fire quite often!"

No: "Compared to the generally low fire probability of an HSS, the probability of PV systems catching fire is a further three times lower"

Preprint, RWTH Aachen, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4995517

#Renewables #Solar #PV #Battery #Research

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

(cue the naysayers that will point at what they think are methodical flaws in the preprint. I salute you! Please contact the authors with your criticisms as the preprint needs peer review from experts like you! You did read the whole preprint, though? It is quite accessible and goes to great lengths to explain the limits of their methodology)

David Chisnall (*Now with 50% more sarcasm!*)

@jwildeboer Do you know how these numbers have changed over time? Battery densities have increased, which would naively lead to an increase in fire risk, but the safety designs (especially safely venting pressurised hydrogen that can build up when the cells deteriorate) have also improved. I wonder if there was a period when they were very unsafe, or if it was always just a marketing-driven perception.

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

@david_chisnall It's as far as I know the first quantitative research on this topic here in Germany, so I guess that kind of data isn't available yet. They did however compare fire risk for large storage systems (that are not in households, obviously) and found that the fire risk is averaging at .015% per MW/Year

Apan

@jwildeboer "The fires in HSS in Germany were determined using web crawling for the year 2023 because no other data was available" ..... Yeah, seams like an reliable method.

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

@Apan The authors are looking forward to your proposal of a better and more reliable method!

Apan

@jwildeboer I would argue that it's up to the authors to do their work, it's not the readers.

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

@Apan The authors did their work, the best way they could and explained their methods. It's a preprint, so the authors are interested in peer review. You can find contact details right at the top of the paper if you are interested in making this better. If you only want to criticise and complain, that's also fine. But not something I care about that much

Jesper Larsson

@jwildeboer 0.0049% doesn’t sound low? It should mean that five in a thousand systems catch fire…

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

@avadeaux 5 in a 100000. 0,0049% means 0,000049 as factor. 50 times less probability than other house fires. So far more to gain by tackling that risk.

Peter Bindels

@jwildeboer I'm mostly surprised the more common things of "damaged equipment still used", "power extensions used beyond rating" and "outdated house wiring" are not listed.

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

@dascandy Just read the preprint. It's on page 4.

dexternemrod

@jwildeboer
I wonder how a wood/coal oven would fit into this chart ...

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

@dexternemrod Seems it would fall under the 2% in the "open fire" category on page 4 of the preprint. See https://social.wildeboer.net/@jwildeboer/113628366653077740

Merry Jerry, powered by AI🎄🎅🕎⛄️❄️

@jwildeboer FWIW, I recently had an albeit non-scientific discussion with the fire marshal of a city about the fire hazard of batteries. My take away from the discussion is that we have to segment the discussion into two - batteries that are made by reputable companies with reasonable safety standards and those that are super cheap (he mentioned buying through Alibaba as being problematic, but guessing both good and bad can be bought there but that people shopping there tend to look for the cheapest thing with the specs they want)

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

@jerry Absolutely. But specifically here in Germany the rules are quite strict and people tend to not just buy batteries and install them DIY style, in almost all cases I know they get installed by certified companies and are of good quality. People know they would lose insurance if they did it DIY style. I have heard a few stories of off-grid DIY installations going up in flames in places like garden sheds, travel huts etc.

[email protected]

@[email protected]

I'd add a battery to my solar configuration, but they are so expensive (especially when you factor in how long they last before needing replacement).

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

@ferricoxide Things will only get better In a few years you will be able to get solid state batteries that last for 10+ years at an acceptable price, if the current solutions are not good enough for you ATM.

robloblaw

@david_chisnall @jwildeboer
The huge variability in quality of lithium batteries for smaller emobility devices may contribute. Scooters and ebikes are burning down houses frequently enough for fire departments to be warning of the risk.

BYD hybrids are notorious for catching fire, as are some of the EVs LGChem supplied batteries for.

These are hopefully just teething problems of an industry rapid developing.

For stationary storage, LFP chemistries are extremely safe.

Jan Wildeboer 😷:krulorange:

@robloblaw I am not a big fan of me trying hard to bring verifiable numbers to the table only to have someone waving their arms with some ominous "frequently" and "notorious for catching fire" without any sources or numbers to back those allegations up. Please don't @david_chisnall