“That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.
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“That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin.
Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.”
“Male Pollsters Shocked Shocked When A Woman Pollster Discovers Women Voters”
All. Of. This.
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Spooky Socks VOTEDreplied to Francisca Sinn last edited by
@fsinn
Nate Silver owes the US for getting Trump elected. The payment on that debt is he should STFU. -
Raccoon at TechHub :mastodon:replied to Spooky Socks VOTED last edited by
@ohmu @fsinn
Something people need to remember about Nate Silver and 538 is that they aren't trying to call the election, they are trying to give you an accurate view of the possibility space for things like gambling. Literally, their models were made for gambling bets, and have a pretty good track record for those.In 2016, we kept trying to tell people looking at that that he had given a one in three chance for Donald Trump to win, based on the fact that he had done the thousand most likely simulations and Donald Trump had one in a third of them. As we got close to election day, things started looking very close to those one in three simulations.
...which is why I keep telling people to stop looking at this sort of sugar coating thinking and just go vote for Kamala Harris. I have no idea why these people would repeatedly try to tell us that it's not close when pretty much all the evidence points to a Harris win being entirely dependent on all these "unlikely" voters.
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Raccoon at TechHub :mastodon:replied to Francisca Sinn last edited by
@fsinn
Honestly, Trump is so dangerous, I wouldn't even be publishing something like this.Complacency is why the Democrats lost in 2016. We cannot afford people to believe that it's not close, based on some democrat trying to sugarcoat it: pretty much all of Trump's people are going to turn out for him, while Harris only wins if we can get people to the actual voting precincts to cast a vote for Kamala Harris.
I'm pretty much ignoring the polls at this point and assuming that Trump will win if we don't get as many people out to vote as possible.