Donald Trump promises 25 per cent tariff on products from Canada, Mexico

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Which provinces do you think would not get hurt by this, or even not as much? BC is the only one that might get away okay that I can think of, and I’m not even sure about that.

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This one’s pretty damn existential. Man, you thought inflation was bad before…

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Honestly there’s easier ways to use politics for money, if that’s actually their conscious goal.

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Under CUSMA it’s not. Not even remotely. Ask if he cares.

What are you gonna do, call the Earth police?

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CUSMA is basically NAFTA 2.0, though, so that’s not the most helpful reply.

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Seriously, we should be getting in with them really hard right now. It’s the only hope if we want to stay relevant as a sovereign nation in any way.

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Yeah, the next test is how he responds to all the Americans begging him for a carve-out at the very least. He could tell them to pound sand, or completely reverse course. Both seem about as likely.

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I’m talking about things like housing and affordability, which affect people across the country.

Housing is not the responsibility of the federal government. Any support they offer would need to be handled by Provincial leadership and municipalities.

As for “affordability”… that’s a very broad term. Are you referring to anything in particular?

The issue with blaming the feds, is that the feds can only do as much as the other governments (provincial and municipal) are willing to do.

In Ontario, for example, we have a crisis in education, healthcare, public safety, poverty, and crime.

These are issues that affect nearly all Ontarians on a daily basis, yet our government wants to waste money, and people want to blame Trudeau.

Our Provincial Government should be primarily focused on those concerns, but they’d rather misspend tens of millions to remove safe cycling infrastructure from the City of Toronto.

And you should also keep in mind that we have a minority Federal Government, so other parties, including those known to NOT CARE about people, are creating consistent roadblocks to progress in areas where the Feds have influence.

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Trust me, I know EVERYONE will get hurt by a trade war because each province trade with the US more than with each other. But one in particular will be brought to its knees.

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Ontario?

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Oh this isn’t ill will. It’s good for them. Some lessons are hard. Hopefully Trump will give them some self-realization that they are not American but Trump’s enemies.

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Oil and gas products were the single biggest export item to the US at US$128.5b in 2023. The next biggest category was vehicles at US$58b.

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Oil can, at some additional price, be redirected, though. A specific part for an American automobile, on the other hand…

Then again, Ontario is just as conservative lately, and has always been more American, so if it’s revenge against the right you’re after maybe that works.

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No. Oil and gas are very hard to ship. Canadian oil is of heavy type which most of the world doesn’t use. Gas needs LNG terminals and we simply haven’t built. EU has been urging Canada to build some in Quebec and Maritimes so they can reduce dependence on Russia. Most of the pipelines go to the US south for refining - in Louisiana and Texas. Canadian producers have no choice but to sell to them, at whatever they want to pay. That’s why Alberta was bitching and moaning about building the pipeline to BC so that they can get a better price for their heavy oil elsewhere and Trudeau spent billions to appease them but that pipeline’s been in limbo.

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Tank trucks exist, they’re just more expensive, which is why pipelines have been on the agenda. We also have upgraders that make heavy oil light - I’ve seen some desulfering plants in person (yes, I’m in this picture, if only geographically). It’s a distillation away from being petrol (and heavy/heating oil and asphalt), and the main cost of shipping is petrol, so the economic case is really just driven by the need for it at the other end.

Meanwhile, in Ontario a part crosses the border multiple times on it’s way to being generally saleable as a car, and would rack up 25% every time as the policy is currently proposed. You’re right, Alberta will be in the shitter economically, but we’re not the most vulnerable, let alone the most vulnerable by far.

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How many tanker trucks you want clogging roads?

acargitz

In theory, USMCA is a law (his own law…) that has been passed by the US Congress. So in theory, he shouldn’t be able to just tear it up at a whim.

In practice, with US institutions captured by the trumpist republicans, lol yea.

EDIT: also “the 2020 deal allows for national security exceptions”, so that’s why he’s blathering about the crap he’s blathering about. EDIT2: Here, article 32.2.

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Two problems with your suggestion: 1)not enough truck drivers, nor trucks to move that kind of volume (this has existed for nearly 2 decades and getting worse - google it). 2) refining CAPACITY isn’t sufficient or they would already be doing what you’re suggesting. Upgraders, refiners are UBER EXPENSIVE to build, and NO CAPITALIST is investing in new refining capacity for the last 10 years. This is why most of the refining is done where it’s already built.

acargitz

It probably is under USMCA:

“[T]he 2020 deal allows for national security exceptions”, which is why he’s blathering about the crap he’s blathering about.

See here, article 32.2(b).

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In the current NAFTA 2.0 agreement, signed in 2018, there is a 6-year renegotiation provision. That’s what Trump is using to change a whole host of things in the deal.