Tale of two polls.
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Tale of two polls. Same time as the shocking Des Moines Register Poll ( https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/) has come out showing Harris up +3 in Iowa, an Emerson College/RealClearDefense poll (https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/) is out showing Trump up +10.
It defies reason that these two polls can both be of the same state, an yet there it is. So what's going on? Who knows.
But, Emerson is one of these bogus GOP biased 'red wavers' and the Register is an old time legit pollster. -
Molly Cranberries-Kraig 🦃replied to Mastodon Migration VOTED last edited by
@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
I am an Iowa native. IMO, the Register poll accurately reflects the political sentiment. Iowans are a mercurial sort, but there are enough Eisenhower Republicans who live there who will be goddamned if they let Trump occupy the White House again.
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Ehay2k for Harris Walzreplied to Mastodon Migration VOTED last edited by
@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
@tomiahonen What's the deal with the Emerson poll?
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Ben Royce 🇺🇸🇺🇦 Don't Boo: Votereplied to Mastodon Migration VOTED last edited by
@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
only problem:
1. #harris ahead
"cool, i don't need to vote"
2. tied
"this is depressing, i'm not voting"
3. #trump ahead
"what's the point, i'm not going to vote"
just #vote people, fuck the polls, whatever they say
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Mastodon Migration VOTEDreplied to Molly Cranberries-Kraig 🦃 last edited by
Thank you. -
Ed Seedhousereplied to Mastodon Migration VOTED last edited by
@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
"It defies reason that these two polls can both be of the same state"Just shows how little you understand about polling.
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Mastodon Migration VOTEDreplied to Ben Royce 🇺🇸🇺🇦 Don't Boo: Vote last edited by
Hear you, but nobody is sitting this one out. Don't think one poll is going to make people complacent. We are all scared to death and turnout will be through the roof. Full speed ahead! Everyone votes! Defeat is not an option, and no amount of victory margin is enough!
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Mastodon Migration VOTEDreplied to Ed Seedhouse last edited by
Pretty strong 'reply guy' energy there Ed, but thanks for your perspective.
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Tomi T Ahonen For Harrisreplied to Ehay2k for Harris Walz last edited by
@Ehay2k @mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin Real Clear sponsored that poll. Real Clear are in the tank for Trump, do not ever refer to anything Real Clear does. Total frauds
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Mastodon Migration VOTEDreplied to Tomi T Ahonen For Harris last edited by
@tomiahonen @Ehay2k @KamalaHarrisWin
That's the point. Not referring to them as a credible source, but as an example of how the polls are being manipulated by the GOP this election.
And if they are finagling the polls that much in Iowa, just image what they are doing all over the country.
Do not trust most of the polls people. There are a few legit pollsters, who Tomi has monitored and averaged, the rest are garbage.
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Morten Kjeldgaardreplied to Molly Cranberries-Kraig 🦃 last edited by
@mckra1g @mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin @benroyce The tide rises everywhere. If it’s rising in Iowa, it’s rising all over. Other states might be in play that we didn’t expect, and the polls are lagging several days if not a week.
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Mastodon Migration VOTEDreplied to Morten Kjeldgaard last edited by
@mok0 @mckra1g @KamalaHarrisWin @benroyce
And most of the polls are GOP manipulated 'red wave' polls, so you are right, we have no idea how widespread this may be.
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@mok0 @mckra1g @mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin @benroyce
Makes this the perfect time to push harder - when your opponent is stumbling backwards it's a perfect time to knock them off their feet.
If people are disgusted with Trump, let's convince them to be disgusted with the party that supports him.
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Mastodon Migration VOTEDreplied to jz.tusk last edited by
@jztusk @mok0 @mckra1g @KamalaHarrisWin @benroyce
There is only one way to rid America of this MAGA scourge, and that is to crush it. To win by such a convincing margin that the Republicans can no longer exist in their current form. So, defeat is not an option and no amount of victory margin is enough.
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SearingTruthreplied to Mastodon Migration VOTED last edited by
@mastodonmigration @jztusk @mok0 @mckra1g @KamalaHarrisWin @benroyce
"I and thousands of other scientists and engineers developed the internet in belief that one day we could all actually see and hear each other, leading to the universal realization that we are all the same.
And amazingly the internet eventually did work, and we all could see and hear each other at once.
But we still were just as easily led to misunderstanding.
Much of my life was crushed as I pondered what we could have done differently, but eventually I realized that humanity must face and save itself.
One human being at a time."
SearingTruth -
jz.tuskreplied to Mastodon Migration VOTED last edited by
@mastodonmigration @mok0 @mckra1g @KamalaHarrisWin @benroyce
Yes.
It's silly to get too enamored of a phrase you've invented yourself, but I keep thinking "A serious punch aims past the point of contact".I don't want us to just aim to win - I want us to aim at destroying the fascists' hold on power, and any future hopes they may have.
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Grassroots Joereplied to Mastodon Migration VOTED last edited by
@mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
I had thought Emerson was more or less OK, but what the hell is RealClearDefense? Never heard of them and if they're affiliated with Real Clear Politics, their definitely worse than useless.
As for Ann Seltzer and the Register, 100% gold standard in Iowa and anyone who knows anything about Iowa polling knows that's true.
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@joeinwynnewood @mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin
Did they excl Des Moines from the sample; another RW junk poll no one's heard of.
Selzer poll is the gold standard in Iowa and in line with early voting showing consistent Democratic Party lead + significant gender gap. -
SaareMarthareplied to Morten Kjeldgaard last edited by
@mok0 @mckra1g @mastodonmigration @KamalaHarrisWin @benroyce
Let's not forget. This is a marathon - not a sprint. Now's the time we have to run the hardest: Vote, help your neighbors, friends and family to VOTE!
