Israel didn't win.

Laxystem

Israel didn't win.

Israel has:
* Achieved nothing it didn't have prior to the war
* Lost thousands and souls and killed even more
* Lost what was remaining of its reputation
* Ruined its economy even further
* Enriched American war makers with no benefit to itself
* Lost a large percentage of its scientists, and will continue to lose even more
* Completed zero of its war goals

This is not a victory. Israel has lost.

8124🟦

@laxla It goes without saying that Israel did not seek this war which was forced upon it on October 7th.

To evaluate win/loss, look at publicly stated war goals:

- Israeli victory means 1) rescue all hostages and recover bodies (this goal is 50% complete before the deal) and 2) remove hamas from power in Gaza.

- Hamas victory means regime survival, continued rule of Gaza.

It's too early to declare a victor, no goals are met.

However, on the northern front, hezbollah was defeated by Israel.

Laxystem

@8124
I agree, the northern war was an Israeli victory. Israel has achieved control of the Syrian Hermon, got Hezbollah to retreat northwards, and gave the Syrian rebels an opportunity to take down Assad's regime

But:
* Hamas' goal was to create a neverending war to return attention to the middle east. War goal, met.
* Returning all hostages is a secondary goal to my government. And half of them being dead is not really a victory, is it.
* Hamas is still in power in Gaza and the current hostage deal will actually resume Israeli funding to Hamas. This is not a victory. This is lameness and a lack of spine.

8124🟦

@laxla These are good points, i'll still try to respond.

- My pedantic counter to this is that we don't yet know if it's never-ending. They also succeeded in derailing Israeli regional diplomacy, but this could also be temporary.

- I don't think this is right, if it were truly secondary the deal would not have happened because it buys hamas time to further recruit and organize.

- Yes, hamas last lifeline is stealing aid. The important thing is to prevent rearming while still holding hostages.

Laxystem

@8124
450 days is neverending by Israeli standards. Compare that to literally six. And neverending war doesn't have to be consecutive. See: Operation Wall Guardian.

This war goal was only added due to political pressure from the center left. It didn't even exist when the war began. Netanjahu is now ending the war because of Trump's expansionism: he doesn't want to accept Trump's surely coming offer of landing American troops on Israeli soil, as Trump will attempt to integrate Israel into the US (which means less potential power for Netanjahu), and more importantly, will support Ben Gvir, not Netanjahu.

Yes, hamas last lifeline is stealing aid. The important thing is to prevent rearming while still holding hostages.

Yes and no. Hamas is an idea. You don't care about the specific organization. The only way to stop Hamas is complete integration of Gazans into Israeli society. We didn't get closer to that this war. I mean, we did. In October 2023. For a month. Till we didn't.