okay. Utah is polling at 28% D, 60% T.Last election was 37% D, 58% T.some counties are a deep 80%, some are a shallow 60%.
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okay. Utah is polling at 28% D, 60% T.
Last election was 37% D, 58% T.
some counties are a deep 80%, some are a shallow(-ish) 60%.A difference of some 305,000-ish voters?
so, if ~153,000 #Utah voters swap, it flips blue. (I'm bad at math)
the last times it did that were:
FDR (1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, new deal stuff)
Wilson 1916
William Jennings Bryan 1896 (admitted to union)or something like that. I can't math.
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"either convince 9% of utah's population of non-voters to vote, or convince 4.6% of the population to swap from trump to harris"
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Risottoreplied to Risotto last edited by [email protected]
60-67% of utah is registered, 52% of utah votes
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Jima :Compromise_bi_flag:replied to Risotto last edited by
@risottobias Are you...familiar with Utah demographics? 🤨
I would argue that who's running against the Republican matters, A LOT.
White guy? Moderately popular!
Black guy? Better than some (as long as he's not running against an LDS candidate)!
White woman? Not so great (although local 3rd-party candidate Evan McMullin eked out 21.54% of the vote, cutting into BOTH major candidates' takes).
(I was drawing a blank on the popular 1992 3rd-party candidate — duh, Perot. ️ Less so in 1996, tho.)
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Risottoreplied to Jima :Compromise_bi_flag: last edited by
@jima hey, I can dream lol.
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Jima :Compromise_bi_flag:replied to Risotto last edited by
@risottobias After a decade there, it was fairly undeniable that I was not well-aligned with the state's usual prevailing elected choice.
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Risottoreplied to Jima :Compromise_bi_flag: last edited by
@jima I mean, I've lived in Wyoming, Colorado, and now Utah
and by golly I'll make it gayer and bluer.