20% trump wins outright (unrest ensues)

Dana Fried

15% a GOP-controlled state legislature throws EVs to trump regardless of popular vote (constitutional crisis ensues)

25% vote counting is slow; Trump declares victory; there is widespread unrest (constitutional crisis ensues)

20% harris wins outright; trump declares victory anyway; several states publicly recognize him as president (constitutional crisis ensues)

20% same as above but no states recognize him (unrest ensues)

Dana Fried

I do not see an outcome in which there is no political violence.

I give the USA about a 50/50 chance of still existing in its current form in ten years.

Raccoon at TechHub :mastodon:

@tess
We already have unrest. The question is, who do we want in charge as the unrest continues? The person causing all the unrest with lies, who wants to violently suppress the population and get rid of the democracy, or the person whose biggest issue is just that she isn't radical?

Dana Fried

@Raccoon no shit; I voted for harris and gave her a bunch of money.

but scared people vote for fascists, and the right and the media have done a very good job of scaring people

at this point I'm not sure the country is governable, at least until and unless trumpism is burned completely out of our political process

Raccoon at TechHub :mastodon:

@tess
I think we can turn some of this around. A lot of the anger right now, on both sides, is directed at the two-party system. If we can leverage that, I think we can get the two-party system out in just a few cycles worth of ballot initiatives and pressure on political figures...

...which would in fact be a situation in which "the US not existing in its current state in 10 years"

Raccoon at TechHub :mastodon:

@tess
Something I think people need to remember is that, as loud and as willing to call for violence as they are, most of his supporters are cowards. A very small percentage of them actually showed up on January 6th, and only a fraction of them were actually willing to do violence when it came down to it, and even then as part of what seems to have been an isolated mob.

Yeah, we have the mass shooters and all that, but even if they try something crazy, they will likely fold pretty quickly once they realize it's not going to be safe or easy.

Like every KKK member talks a big game about how they will kill all the black and queer people, but the moment they realize they could get shot or arrested for trying to murder someone, they back down.

Raccoon at TechHub :mastodon:

@tess
So like, be ready for some crazy shit: Trump is going to declare victory on election night before the votes are even counted, and he's definitely going to try and get people to riot if he doesn't win, so we should definitely prepare for not being able to go to the store for a couple days or having people throwing bricks at our windows, but I don't think it's going to be sustained.

Dana Fried

@Raccoon it will be a gut check for the country

Raccoon at TechHub :mastodon:

@tess
I think 2016 was a gut check and we've been having them basically every two years since then. Like I said, my goal is to leverage this into trying to undermine the two-party system (and the corporate media) as much as possible for the next few years, until we have a more democratic society.