So here is some really simplified elections math...
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@mastodonmigration
Interesting site, but what does "modeled party" mean? -
Mastodon Migrationreplied to Mastodon Migration last edited by
So, the conclusion is that 7%, a pretty big number, of Republican women would need to vote for Harris. Seems implausible, but if possibly a couple percent of Republican men and 5% of Republican women vote for Harris it would tip the balance.
The purpose here is obviously not to say what will happen, but rather to illustrate how sensitive this election may be to the number of Republican women who choose to vote for Harris.
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TargetEarly has an algorithm that they use to 'determine' Democrat and Republican voters.
"TargetSmart’s partisanship modeling ranks voters according to their likely partisan leanings and is refined every year. While this model offers us a good general sense of early voting trends, variations in training data, survey collection methods, and modeling techniques for each iteration of our model may lead to confusion when comparing the model across election cycles."
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On Election Day in general elections, voters in Georgia are completely free to vote for candidates from any party, regardless of any past primary participation or party affiliation. This system allows a registered Republican to vote for Democratic candidates, or vice versa, according to personal choice.
My hunch is that many conservative men are going to be surprised there. I can't promise that it will be enough of them, but hopefully a measurable number of them.
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Grassroots Joereplied to Mastodon Migration last edited by
That'll only be accurate if the male/female split holds through the end of early voting and of course all the votes.
I suspect it won't. -
Of course. Not just on election day. For the entire general election anyone can vote for anyone. The purpose here is simply to illustrate that Republican women voting for Harris may be that surprise, but it will take a lot of them.
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Mastodon Migrationreplied to Grassroots Joe last edited by
We are getting up there is numbers. As of today in GA almost 80% (https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22Republican%22%7D%2C%7B%22key%22%3A%22gender%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=GA&view_type=state) of the number of people who vote in 2020 have voted early. So, there are not too many more votes to factor in.
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@mastodonmigration consider the amount of white women who vote conservative, albeit the blatant sexism from the right.
They do that because they are ok withstanding the sexism, so they can enjoy their racism, the aphorism goes, and it's NOT WRONG. They do that.
Never trust a conservative to do the moral/ethical thing.
They have no such concept, just "Fuck You, I Got Mine".
Period.
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Yup, 7% is a lot. It will depend on how many are old model 'conservatives' and how many are MAGA, but it seems like a big lift.
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@mastodonmigration Cobb County GA has never voted for Trump despite being Republican. Cobb County even voted for Clinton in 2016. I know of one Republican man who won’t vote this year. I’ve seen one Trump flag in the trash in a 70% Trump county.
So I’m saying
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Mastodon Migrationreplied to kralcttam ☕️ last edited by [email protected]
Harris seems in great shape in Cobb County (https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&geo=Cobb&geo_type=counties&state=GA&view_type=state)
Dem 127K
Rep 93K
Rep Female 46K
Rep Male 48KApplying the simplistic model if 5% Rep women go for Harris:
H = 127K + 3K = 130K
T = 48K + 45K = 93KNet 37K for Harris.
What is crazy about Cobb county is how few Republicans have already voted compared to 2020.
