Historically low "misery index" is great news for Harris.
-
Mastodon Migrationwrote last edited by [email protected]
Historically low misery index is great news for Harris.
The "misery index", the sum of the unemployment rate and inflation rate over the last year, has been an excellent predictor of US presidential elections, having correctly forecast 15 of the past 16 races for the White House.
Now the index is at 6.8, pretty much the lowest it has been in six decades.
This low a misery index says Harris should win the election.
The Biden-Harris Misery Index in Historical Context
In 1980 Ronald Reagan brought the term “misery index” into political debates. The concept is simple, it’s the sum of the unemployment rate and inflation rate over the last year. It’s not obvious that these two numbers should have the same importance, and they certainly are not the only measures that matter in evaluating the […]
Center for Economic and Policy Research (cepr.net)
-
Ray Gulick, he/him/🥥replied to Mastodon Migration last edited by
@mastodonmigration
Isn't that an indicator for incumbents? Can Harris really be considered an incumbent? -
Mastodon Migrationreplied to Ray Gulick last edited by
It's an indicator for the party in power.