We know that people with #COVID are contagious even when asymptomatic; perhaps even _more_ contagious.We know that COVID often causes long-term, often permanent, serious disability, even after "mild" cases, even for vaccinated people, even for previous...
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We know that people with #COVID are contagious even when asymptomatic; perhaps even _more_ contagious.
We know that COVID often causes long-term, often permanent, serious disability, even after "mild" cases, even for vaccinated people, even for previously healthy people.
We know that #masking dramatically reduces the spread of COVID.
The #CDC COVID guidance simply ignores all of this.
It's absolute insanity.
#LongCOVID #CovidIsNotOver -
Jonathan Kamensreplied to Jonathan Kamens last edited by
It's not actually insanity, though.
One of the first pieces of advice I was given when I started working for the federal government is this: most people in government behave rationally within the incentive structures imposed on them.
Government agencies are frequently confronted with hard problems that they are tasked with solving but can't because of externally imposed constraints. Some common constraints:
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Jonathan Kamensreplied to Jonathan Kamens last edited by
* The agency hasn't been given the resources ($$$) they need.
* Leadership does not support taking necessary actions.
* Laws, regulations, and government structure interfere with necessary actions.
* The public does not support taking necessary actions.
All of these apply in one way or another to reducing the spread of COVID.
I sympathize with the CDC.
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Jonathan Kamensreplied to Jonathan Kamens last edited by
They're underfunded in general, and Congress has allowed COVID funding to lapse (e.g., the school my wife teaches at was getting COVID tests subsidized by the government up until this summer, but the funding is gone and so are the free tests).
The Biden administration has clearly decided that the only politically viable messaging about COVID is "Nothing to see here, move along." Believe me, the CDC got the message, and it would be career suicide for anyone there to diverge from it.
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Jonathan Kamensreplied to Jonathan Kamens last edited by
Public health apparati in the U.S. are controlled by the states, not by the federal government. The CDC therefore has little to no ability to impose public health mandates. All they can do is advise, and it should be clear to everyone by now that strong advice about COVID is likely to be ignored for various reasons.
And, finally, nobody wants to wear a mask, nobody wants to stop eating out in restaurants or going to bars, nobody wants to stop spending time with their friends, etc.
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Jonathan Kamensreplied to Jonathan Kamens last edited by
Given these constraints and others that the CDC is under, honestly, there probably isn't much more they can do than they're already doing.
I am sure there are CDC employees who know the CDC COVID guidelines are bad. I wish more of them would speak out, but at the same time I know that if they did, it probably wouldn't do any good, so they would be throwing away their careers for nothing.
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Jonathan Kamensreplied to Jonathan Kamens last edited by
Honestly, the only way this changes is if Congress and the president decide to change it. It's inevitably going to change eventually, since just as it eventually became impossible to ignore HIV/AIDS, it's going to eventually become impossible to ignore COVID.
However, it's not going to change in the last <5 months of the Biden administration. It's certainly not going to change if Trump wins. There's a small chance that it will change in a Harris administration with a Democratic Congress.
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Jonathan Kamensreplied to Jonathan Kamens last edited by
It took ~10 years for the magnitude of the HIV/AIDS problem to become obvious enough that it could no longer be ignored. I think it'll also take ~10 years for that to happen with #COVID. I'm therefore not expecting any significant change in public policy regarding COVID before 2030 at the earliest.
I'm aware of how much harm will result in the interim. I absolutely think it sucks. I'm not saying I want things to be this way; I'm saying this is the way I think things are, realistically.
/fin