US journalism is not "bad." It's dishonest.
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@mekkaokereke Yes? They were apparently considering voting for Trump, or they wouldn't have given the answer they gave. In any case, I think the assumption of sincerity is valid.
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@mekkaokereke @alper polls dubious.
35% of republicans energized Trump vote is also the “MAGA core” base number.
The poll also shows 7% anti-Trump swing I the I dependent segment.
> Among independent registered voters, 25% said Trump's conviction made them less likely to support him in November, compared to 18% who said they were more likely and 56% who said the conviction would have no impact on their decision.
4% here. 7% there and pretty soon you are talking about a lot of people.
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Black folk and Rachel Bitecofer are better at predicting elections than most white US voters. Our track record speaks for itself. People are always surprised at how accurately Black people predict elections. The reason we're so accurate, is that we accept 2 facts that most voters don't:
1) US elections are all about turnout. And turnout is all about racism. Election laws and disenfranchisement matters more than voting intent.
2) Swing voters aren't real. They can't hurt you.
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@mekkaokereke BTW 10% GOP voters is 5% of all voters. That's a heck of a lot in a swing state. We *must* keep his convicted felon status in the public consciousness.
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In 2020, 6% of GOP voters, voted for Biden.
In 2016, 8% of GOP voters, voted for Biden.
There has always been 5% to 10% of GOP voters that don't like Trump. They even have little "Never Trump" support meetings and such.
It's not like 100% of GOP voters were all in for Trump, but now that he's been convicted, 10% of them have suddenly been shaken loose. That's a fantasy, and a dangerous one.
The net shift in perception among Trump voters, is "I'm even more pro-Trump!"
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@mekkaokereke Come on. You know better than that. No, we shouldn't rely on it, but we should *never* shut up about it. Also small wins are wins.
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But I don't think it's a win. I think that Trump voters don't care. It's a distraction.
The thing that matters most, is voter turnout of "white voters that live in swing states, aren't disenfranchised, have easy access to voting, totally would vote for Biden, care about women's reproductive rights, but... don't really care enough to make an effort to vote, even though voting is easier for them than everyone else."
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If their turnout increases just a little, Biden can't lose.
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@mekkaokereke @martinvermeer in the end it's not about GOP voters. It's about turnout and convincing enough of the independents.
And independents might be put off by a felon. As they might also be by Biden being too tough on Israel.
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Independents aren't real. They can't hurt you.
Like Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and undecided voters.
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@[email protected] Here's another poll I'm sure you'll love: "49% of Independents think Trump should drop out post-guilty verdict"!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh btw "The polls found the race effectively tied nationally in a 1-on-1 with Biden at 45% and Trump at 44%".
https://www.axios.com/2024/06/01/poll-trump-conviction-election-independent-voters
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Although for what it's worth, Bitecofer retweeted somebody who shared a screenshot of a headline with "Trump verdict makes significant number of Republicans less likely to vote for him" referring to that annoying Reuters poll. So ...
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@jdp23 @mekkaokereke @alper @breiter She also enthusiastically endorsed the political strategists advising the Democrats to declare victory on COVID just prior to the Omicron disaster, displaying contempt for the disabled folk and public health advocates warning of the damage the premature posture change would inflict.
I’m not a fan. I think she’s yet another in a long line of election scryers whose model worked great for a couple of cycles and now they think they know everything.
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Yeah, I wasn't endorsing her in general, just highlighting her take on this poll. It's pretty consistent with her views that she'd think it makes sense to emphasize this -- negative partisanship and all that.
Out of curiosity, in light of @[email protected]'s point elsewhere in the thread about how focusing on "Trump is worse!" is a way for Biden and the Dems to try to defuse pressure on Gaza, I did a quick search for "Bitecofer Gaza". Lo and behold I found a tweet from her just last week talking about college protests: "every one Gaza vote Biden lost would have been 100 lost swing voters if he’d abandoned Israel." And speaking of election scryers who think they know everything, she was approvingly quoting Nate Silver!
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Who knows, quite possibly the same underlying thing that happened to Nate: went from being election forecasters to thinking they're strategists, at which point their whiteness starts to play a bigger role. I read an interview with her earlier this year (which is actually what I was trying to find with my search, the stuff with Nate was just icing on the cake) where she says:
"And I just think it is my obligation—now, I’m not trying to dismiss your concerns or the concerns that people have about Gaza—but I do see it as my obligation to make sure every immigrant community in this country knows they are right in the crosshairs. And it won’t be a small sacrifice, or four years of pain or some small setbacks. What they are promising, in writing and on video, is to decimate American Muslim communities. So I feel like getting that across to those communities is probably the most important thing that we can do."
White savior much?
https://lithub.com/rachel-bitecofer-on-democratic-strategies-to-counter-republicans-in-the-2024-election/
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@jdp23 @mekkaokereke @alper @breiter A striking thing about that is that, while it is possible to make a bloodless (bloodthirsty?) electoral case for the Democratic elite position on Gaza, this is not that. 100 vs. 1 is not a serious claim, it’s a hyperbolic one - and this comes from precisely the people in a position to make serious claims! It’s just preference smuggling coasting on prior expertise.
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I know right? The argument as stated is so obviously unserious, does she not see that or just not care?
On today's immigration announcement, Bitecofer reshared the Biden campaign annoucement, positive coverage from a major network, and somebody (from somebody whose bio is "Centrist, # ReaganCaucus, @ALReaganCaucus") saying "In 2024- Joe Biden is more conservative than the GOP on the border". I wonder what the 2018 "there is no swing voter, it's all about the base" Bitecofer would say about that?
@[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected]