I keep thinking back to a particular passage in Joseph Tainter’s "The Collapse of Complex Societies." In this book, he argues that complex systems, and especially extractive and hierarchical systems like ours, tend to collapse when they reach a point of diminishing marginal returns on additional complexity. As elites exhaust the people who produce wealth for them, they have to invest in yet more mechanisms of control to squeeze more from them, which require yet more resources, which prompt yet more discontent, which require yet more mechanisms of control, in a vicious feedback loop. At a certain point, so many resources are being poured into maintaining the status quo that the system can't confront any new challenges. We tend to experience this, subjectively, as a kind of social exhaustion, a feeling that a society has reached an old age approaching an inevitable death. Nothing works anymore, even though we keep paying higher and higher prices. Sound familiar?"I do not wish to suggest that leadership is immaterial, only that it is of much less importance than many believe. Complex societies do not evolve on the whims of individuals. Circumstance-induced perception is likely to be of greater consequence: rulers look good when the marginal return on investment in complexity is rising, for in such a situation almost anything a leader does is overshadowed by the large payoff to society-wide investment. Conversely, when marginal returns are declining there is usually very little that leadership can do in the short term to arrest this trend, and so anything that is tried is bound to appear incompetent."8/10