@wdlindsy I personally believe that corporate and editorial are now one in the same, and that newspapers are commissioning polls with explicit instructions to show a close race in order to drive web traffic. A clear front-runner means fewer clicks, to put it simply.

@datarama @dalias @dangillmor I also ask myself how Trump has improved his coalition. And I don't see anything that leads me to believe this is the case. The opposite is true, in fact. Something like 20 percent of Republicans say they will not vote for him under any circumstance. Then you factor-in January 6, and the Dobbs decision, and the bad economic proposals, etc. In 2020 there was no GOTV because of covid. Dems turnout machine dwarfs the GOP in numbers and cash. Trump is going to lose by a bigger margin than he lost to Biden.

@datarama @dalias @dangillmor Since the 2020 election, including the 2022 midterms, Dem candidates have outperformed the polls by 3-5 points. It's been remarkably consistent. Pollsters have their turnout model wrong. Dems have a huge enthusiasm advantage that isn't being factored-in.

@dalias @dangillmor I think all media companies are doing this. Intentionally. A close race = clicks, and clicks are what they need to generate ad revenue. Commissioning bogus polls that create the appearance of a close race drives traffic, etc.