@inthehands hey look @jwz brought us an example. https://mastodon.social/@jwz/113092305920577266
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In this lovely heap of schadenfreude:https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/sep/04/trump-media-djt-stock -
In this lovely heap of schadenfreude:https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/sep/04/trump-media-djt-stock@inthehands Shit, we can't even get the paper to stop reporting percentage changes without any basis. I can't count the number of times WaPo has published stories about a percentage increase in crime on the Metro without any indication of how many crimes there were before or after, much less a context of how many rides there are a day.
Up 43% in daily incidents! Ok.... from 20 crimes or 200,000? Compared to how many trips?
It boggles my mind that people leave j-school so innumerate.
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TL;DR: induced demand isn’t just for highways@inthehands The whole LLM situation makes me flash back on the daily; I remember clearly what it looked and felt like siting in that software class in the early 90s, talking about expert systems vs neural networks.
The neural networks part shared the story of the tank spotting system that they trained to perfection till it consistently found the tanks. Till they “tried it in prod” and it turned out the training set tank photos were all on a cloudy day.
That data set was at least consistent.
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TL;DR: induced demand isn’t just for highways@inthehands I think you’re right on all of this. I do wonder if perhaps it would still represent an improvement. After all, one of the biggest mistakes people make (IMNSHO) is they compare a flawed outcome to a utopian possibility, not the way something will actually happen otherwise.
I’m less worried right now about the flawed self drive solutions than I am flawed legal structures around them. This situation in Cali where nobody currently can be fined for their misbehavior is untenable.
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A reminder to myself, sharing for whoever needs to hear it:@inthehands Our local school district has instituted a fairly aggressive policy on retakes and the dialog in local parent forums is just an astonishing wall of folks telling on themselves that way. Whenever I interact with them with my stock “are we doing better for the student long-term by working towards mastery of the subject or by issuing grades to assess knowledge at a specific point in time?” I get back various sputtering about consequences and rewards for high achievers.