It was exactly 1,096 days ago (365 + 365 + 366) that I opened my Bread and Circuses account here.

So, Happy Third Mastodoniversary to me! 🥳

Let’s hope it’s a good one… without any tears.

What is "Amoc" and why is it so important?
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The dangers of a collapse of the main Atlantic Ocean circulation, known as Amoc, have been “greatly underestimated” and would have devastating and irreversible impacts, according to an open letter released by 44 experts from 15 countries.

There are indications that Amoc has been slowing down for the last 60 or 70 years due to global heating. The most ominous sign is the cold blob over the northern Atlantic. The region is the only place in the world that has cooled in the past 20 years or so, while everywhere else on the planet has warmed – a sign of reduced heat transport into that region, exactly what climate computer models have predicted in response to Amoc slowing as a result of greenhouse gas emissions.

Another indicator is a reduction in the salt content of seawater. In the cold blob region, salinity is at its lowest level since measurements began 120 years ago. This is probably linked to Amoc slowing down and bringing less salty water and heat from the subtropics.

It is an amplifying feedback: as Amoc gets weaker, the oceans gets less salty, and as the oceans gets less salty, then Amoc gets weaker. At a certain point this becomes a vicious cycle which continues by itself until Amoc has died, even if we stop pushing the system with further emissions.

The big unknown here – the billion-dollar question – is how far away this tipping point is. It is very difficult to answer because the process is non-linear and would be triggered by subtle differences in salinity, which in turn depend on amounts of rainfall and cloud cover over the ocean as well as Greenland melting rates. These are hard to model accurately in computers so there is a big uncertainty relating to when the tipping point will be reached.
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FULL ARTICLE -- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tipping-point-is-climate-expert-on-potential-collapse-of-atlantic-circulation

#Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis

Don't worry, there's nothing to be alarmed about. Next month the UN is holding another major climate conference, and this time they're gonna solve all our problems.

Or maybe not...
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Azerbaijan, the host of the Cop29 global climate summit, will see a large expansion of fossil gas production in the next decade, a new report has revealed. The authors said the crucial negotiations should not be overseen by “those with a vested interest in keeping the world hooked on fossil fuels.”

The Cop29 summit, starting on 11 November, comes as scientists say continued record carbon dioxide emissions means “the future of humanity hangs in the balance.” The International Energy Agency said in 2021 that no new fossil fuel exploitation should take place if CO2 emissions were to fall to zero by 2050.

Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, told a climate conference in April: “Having oil and gas deposits is not our fault. It’s a gift from God.”
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And God said, thou shalt continue with Business As Usual.

FULL STORY -- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/cop29-host-azerbaijan-set-for-major-fossil-gas-expansion-report-says

#Politics #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #Capitalism #BusinessAsUsual

Chuck Berry invented rock 'n' roll.

The Beatles invented rock.

#Music #History

In the entire universe, we know of only a single planetary biosphere in which life can thrive… and now, a tiny cabal of greedy capitalist idiots is wantonly destroying that precious biosphere.

This sounds like the plot of a bad science fiction movie. But it's not fiction. It's reality.

#Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #Capitalism

This really disgusts me, and it confounds me. What is he thinking?

Certainly a smart, well-informed writer like Thom Hartmann knows all the problems caused by so-called artificial intelligence. Asking AI to create artwork is a *huge* waste of valuable resources — water and energy — not to mention probable infringement on the rights of original image creators. Plus it feeds right into the hands of thieving capitalist mega-corporations, the kind that a liberal like Hartmann presumably opposes.

Using AI in this way is indefensible. It’s wrong, and it must be condemned.

I’ve stopped following Hartmann (@ThomHartmann) and I hope you will too.

#AI #Capitalism

It may already be too late.

No, that's wrong – it *is* already too late to prevent catastrophic damage to our planet’s climate, environment, and biodiversity. We have waited far too long.

Ecological collapse is unavoidable. In fact, it's already begun — with ocean acidification up by 30% and getting worse, with insect populations crashing, with extinctions happening many times faster than the background rate, and so on.

But that doesn't mean we should stop trying!

Because EVERY bit of natural habitat preserved is essential. EVERY species saved from extinction matters. And EVERY tenth of a degree of warming makes a big difference.

Collapse can't be prevented, I’m afraid, but the level and severity of that collapse could be lessened IF decisive action is taken immediately. But that will never happen under our current regime of capitalist domination.

We need system change, and we need it now.

#Science #History #Environment #BioDiversity #Climate #ClimateChange #Capitalism #Degrowth

The much-lauded Paris Agreement of 2015 included a catch, shrewdly hidden among the fine print.

See, the negotiators actually knew that with Business As Usual (which, of course, could never be abandoned), global temperatures would almost certainly rise above their lovely 1.5°C target.

So they built in the clever idea that by 2050 or so, capitalism will have perfected a fancy new technology that could quickly and easily remove a HUGE amount of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere with the excess carbon stored safely away, thereby lowering temperatures — and all this could be achieved *without* having to burn an equal amount of fossil fuels in the process.

Looking back, anyone can see the fallacy. At the time, though, it seemed like a good idea, at least to some people. Now, however, the truth is coming out...
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Humanity’s ability to restore Earth’s temperature below 1.5°C of warming after overshooting it cannot be guaranteed.

Many impacts of climate change are essentially irreversible. Those that are might take decades to undo, well beyond the relevant horizon for climate politics. For policy makers of the future, it matters little that temperatures might eventually fall back again; the impacts they will need to plan for are those of the overshoot period itself.

Avoiding climate breakdown demands that we bury the fantasy of overshoot-and-return and with it another illusion as well: that the Paris targets can be met without uprooting the status-quo. One limit after the other will be broken unless we manage to strand fossil fuel assets and curtail opportunities for continuing to profit from oil and gas and coal.

We will not mitigate climate change without confronting and defeating fossil fuel interests.
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FULL ESSAY -- https://theconversation.com/how-mainstream-climate-science-endorsed-the-fantasy-of-a-global-warming-time-machine-225597

#History #Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis

Let’s clear up some misconceptions.

Degrowth does NOT mean condemning millions of people in the Global South to starvation.

Degrowth is about social justice and climate justice. This means allowing the Global South to achieve something close to parity with a Global North that is sharply reducing consumption and energy use.

On the other hand, a continuation of endless economic growth, i.e. Business As Usual, DOES mean condemning hundreds of millions in the Global South to eco-climate disasters, drought, and starvation.

LEARN MORE -- https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/degrowth-is-about-global-justice/

#Politics #History #Economics #Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #Degrowth

Last week I highlighted an article about the alarming collapse of Earth's natural "carbon sinks" ️ https://climatejustice.social/@breadandcircuses/113322852198327963

It seems that capitalist industry and commerce are pumping so much carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) into the air each year that the ocean, the land, and the trees just can't absorb as much carbon as they did before. We could be reaching greenhouse gas overshoot now, a point where all those excess gases will accelerate global warming. It will get hotter faster.

But how will we know if we've reached that point? It turns out Finland might be the proverbial canary in the coal mine...
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For decades, Finland's forests and peatlands had reliably removed more carbon from the atmosphere than they released. But from about 2010, the amount the land absorbed started to decline, slowly at first, then rapidly. By 2018, Finland’s land sink — the phrase scientists use to describe something that absorbs more carbon than it releases — had vanished.

Its forest sink has declined about 90% from 2009 to 2022, with the rest of the decline fueled by increased emissions from soil and peat. In 2021 and 2022, Finland’s land sector was a net contributor to global heating.

The number of dying trees has increased in recent years as forests are stressed by drought and high temperatures. In southeast Finland, the rate of dying trees has risen rapidly, increasing 788% in just six years, and the amount of standing deadwood — decaying trees — is up by about 900%.

Rising temperatures are also heating up Finland’s soils, increasing the rate at which peatlands break down and release greenhouse gases into the air. In Lapland enormous mounds of frozen peat are rapidly disappearing.

The impact on Finland’s overall climate progress is dramatic: Despite cutting emissions by 43% across all other sectors, its net emissions are at about the same level as the early 1990s. It is as if nothing has happened for 30 years.

The collapse has enormous implications, not only for Finland but internationally. At least 118 countries are relying on natural carbon sinks to meet climate targets. Now, through a combination of human destruction and the climate crisis itself, some are teetering and beginning to see declines in the amount of carbon that they take in. France, Germany, the Czech Republic, Sweden, and Estonia are among those that have seen significant declines in their land sinks.

Drought, climate-related outbreaks of bark beetle, wildfire, and tree mortality from extreme heat are ravaging Europe’s woodlands on top of pressure from forestry. Across the EU, the amount of carbon absorbed by its land each year fell by about a third between 2010 and 2022, endangering the continent’s climate target.
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It's almost as if Gaia has decided enough is enough and has started fighting back. That is a war humans cannot win. We must listen, and change our ways.

FULL STORY -- https://grist.org/international/what-happens-to-the-world-if-forests-stop-absorbing-carbon-ask-finland/

#Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis

Good morning*, #Mastodon!

* UTC -4

#SilentSunday

Every time we get another one of these monster storms inflicting billions of dollars in damage — not to mention the terrible cost in human lives — I'm reminded of the routine reaction to mass shootings.

"This has to stop," people say. "We can't allow it to continue."

And yet it DOES continue, month after month, year after year. How much longer will we put up with it?
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Climate advocates say Hurricane Milton's 145 mile-per-hour winds and massive disruption to millions of people's lives should make Americans furious at those who have helped make extreme weather more frequent and dangerous.

Scientists and meteorologists have unequivocally told oil companies and policymakers that fossil fuel extraction is causing planetary heating, which has led to higher temperatures in oceans and bodies of water including the Gulf of Mexico, where the rapidly strengthening hurricane formed.

But despite the fact that fossil fuel giants like ExxonMobil and Shell knew decades ago that drilling for oil and gas would cause violent weather and potentially catastrophic events, the industry's profits have only grown as the U.S. has continued to subsidize their pollution-causing activities.

Candice Fortin, U.S. campaigns manager for 350.org, said that fossil fuel executives and the politicians who support them have "blood on their hands" and called on Biden to unequivocally stand on the side of hurricane victims by declaring a climate emergency.

"This is a climate emergency," said Fortin. "Every time we repeat that, countless more lives have been lost or upended by the fossil fuel industry. How many more times will it take? We call on President Biden to use his executive power to declare a climate emergency so we can finally protect front line communities."

Organizer and attorney Aaron Regunberg says oil companies' contributions to the climate emergency have been compounded by their vast efforts to spread misinformation and hide their knowledge that fossil fuel extraction was heating the planet.

"Regular people are paying the ultimate price for this sociopathic greed," said Regunberg. "The families made homeless, the wives and husbands and parents and children who lost loved ones to Helene — these victims deserve justice no less than victims of street-level crimes, and the companies and corporate executives responsible for their pain and suffering deserve criminal punishment at least as much as, if not far more than, the average street-level offender."

"Climate victims have paid so much for Big Oil's reckless conduct," he added. "It's time to make the polluters pay."
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FULL ARTICLE -- https://www.commondreams.org/news/climate-change-hurricanes

#Politics #History #Economics #Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange

Here's a tasty idea — “The one doughnut that might actually be good for us.”
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Oxford economist Kate Raworth asks the question, “What would a sustainable, universally beneficial economy look like?” The answer, "like a doughnut," gets some laughs, but opens many eyes.

In the doughnut's circle is a safe and just space for humanity, with a regenerative, distributive economy. Those inside the hole lack basic needs like water, food, and healthcare, as well as social reforms like education, gender equality, and political justice. Outside the ring is overshoot, those growing economies that surpass the ecological ceiling and create biodiversity loss, pollution, and climate change.

The perfect circle, the sweet spot for humanity, is what we are after.

We have economies that need to grow, whether or not they make us thrive. So too, we have rich economies that need to make us thrive, whether or not they continue to grow. Raworth says, “If humanity is going to thrive here together this century, we need a shift.”
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LEARN MORE -- https://www.oneearth.org/a-healthy-economy-should-be-designed-to-thrive-not-grow/

#Economics #Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #Degrowth

Does anyone remember 2023? That legendary hottest year ever?

Well, with nine months of this year behind us, 2024 is now virtually certain to *beat* 2023 as the warmest year on record.

And still, Business As Usual goes on and on...

#Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #Capitalism #BusinessAsUsual

#SilentSunday

The "Enlightenment" of Western culture makes for a nice story, but that's really all it is — a story.

#Science #Economics #History #Capitalism