How do you feel about prediction markets?
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M. Grégoirereplied to Evan Prodromou last edited by [email protected]
@evan Strongly positive. "A bet is a tax on bullshit."
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/11/a-bet-is-a-tax-on-bullshit.html
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I should note that there will be neither a resolution nor a payout for this poll. You will not win money if you choose the right option.
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Joseph Szymborski :qcca:replied to Evan Prodromou last edited by
@evan not unless an online prediction market starts taking bets on it, that is
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@evan strong positivity, at least relative to...polls.
Polls are here though, would enjoy a somehow fediverse native prediction market.
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@mlinksva ha! No wonder I don't talk to you as much here as I'd like.
I think we'd need a lot more payment infrastructure here before prediction markets could work.
We could probably make something work where you bet some kind of quatloo, and you get paid out in quatloos for the reputation and self esteem bump, but I think one of the things that makes prediction markets work is that real (-ish) money is on the line.
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@mlinksva "I predicted the results of the 2026 midterm elections and all I got was this lousy t-shirt"
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@evan I feel like starting one called "Young's slits" - the act of observing then can change the results.
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@dneary yeah that is not a good name, Dave
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Thanks for all the replies.
I am somewhat positive. I find them interesting, but I don't think they live up to their reputation of having quasi-mystical accuracy.
